assignmentutor-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写贝叶斯分析Bayesian Analysis方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写贝叶斯分析Bayesian Analysis代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写贝叶斯分析Bayesian Analysis相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 统计代写|贝叶斯分析代写Bayesian Analysis代考|Measuring Armageddon and Other Risks

By destroying the meteor in the film Armageddon, Bruce Willis saved the world. Both the chance of the meteor strike and the consequences of such a strike were so high, that nothing much else mattered except to try to prevent the strike. In popular terminology what the world was confronting (in the film) was a truly massive risk.

But if the NASA scientists in the film had measured the size of the risk using the standard approach in industry they would quickly have discovered such a measure was irrational, and it certainly would not have explained to Bruce Willis and his crew why their mission made sense.

Before we explain why, let’s think about more mundane risks, like those that might hinder your next project. These could be:

• Some key people you were depending on become unavailable.
• A piece of technology you were depending on fails.
• You run out of funds or time.
Whether deliberate or not, you will have “measured” such risks. The very act of listing and then prioritizing risks, means that mentally at least you are making a decision about which risks are the biggest.
What you probably did, at least informally, is what most standard texts on risk propose. You decompose risks into two components:
• Probability (or likelihood) of the risk
• Impact (or loss) the risk can cause

## 统计代写|贝叶斯分析代写Bayesian Analysis代考|Risk Registers and Heat Maps

The obsession with focusing only on the negative aspects of risk also leads to an apparent paradox in risk management practice. Typically, risk managers prepare a risk register for a new project, business line, or process whereby each risk is scored according to a formula like in Figure 3.6. The cumulative risk score then measures the total risk. The paradox involved in such an approach is that the more carefully you think about risk (and hence the more individual risks you record in the risk register) the higher the overall risk score becomes. Since higher risk scores are assumed to indicate greater risk of failure it seems to follow that your best chance of a new project succeeding is to simply ignore or underreport any risks.
There are many additional problems with risk registers:

• Different projects or business divisions will assess risk differently and tend to take a localized view of their own risks and ignore that of others. For example, to counter the risk of losing out to a competitor’s new product, a company’s marketing department may impose a product release deadline that creates major new quality risks for the production department. Such “externalized” risks are easy to ignore if other departments’ interests are not represented when constructing the register.
• A risk register does not record opportunities or serendipity, and so does not deal with upside uncertainty, only downside. Hence, risk managers become viewed as doomsayers.
• Risks are not independent. For example, in must manufacturing processes cost, time, and quality will be inextricably linked (see Figure $3.8$ ); you might be able to deliver faster but only by sacrificing quality. Yet “poor quality” and “missed delivery” will appear as separate risks on the register giving the illusion that we can control or mitigate one independently of the other.

# 贝叶斯分析代考

## 统计代写|贝叶斯分析代写Bayesian Analysis代考|Measuring Armageddon and Other Risks

• 你所依赖的一些关键人物变得不可用。
• 您依赖的一项技术失败了。
• 你的资金或时间用完了。
无论有意与否，您都会“衡量”此类风险。列出风险然后对风险进行优先排序的行为本身就意味着，至少在心理上，您正在决定哪些风险是最大的。
你可能做的，至少是非正式的，是大多数关于风险的标准文本所建议的。您将风险分解为两个部分：
• 风险的概率（或可能性）
• 风险可能导致的影响（或损失）

## 统计代写|贝叶斯分析代写Bayesian Analysis代考|Risk Registers and Heat Maps

• 不同的项目或业务部门会以不同的方式评估风险，并且倾向于对自己的风险采取本地化的看法而忽略其他人的风险。例如，为了应对输给竞争对手的新产品的风险，公司的营销部门可能会规定产品发布期限，这会给生产部门带来重大的新质量风险。如果在构建登记册时不代表其他部门的利益，这种“外部化”的风险很容易被忽视。
• 风险登记册不记录机会或偶然性，因此不处理上行不确定性，只处理下行。因此，风险管理者被视为末日预言者。
• 风险不是独立的。例如，在必须的制造过程中，成本、时间和质量将密不可分（见图3.8); 您可能能够更快地交付，但前提是牺牲质量。然而，“质量差”和“错过交付”将作为单独的风险出现在登记册上，给人一种我们可以独立控制或减轻另一个风险的错觉。

## 有限元方法代写

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## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

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